- On Tuesday, February 11, New Hampshire voters are heading to the polls to cast ballots in the historic First in the Nation Democratic primary.
- With Sen. Bernie Sanders and former Mayor Pete Buttigieg having virtually tied in the chaotic February 3 Iowa caucuses, there is no clear leader going into Tuesday's race.
- A few small towns vote at midnight. Most polls close between 7 and 8 p.m. EST throughout the state, meaning we'll start getting steady results after 7 p.m. on Tuesday.
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Three small towns of Dixville Notch, Hart's Location, and Millsfield are the first ones to vote at midnight on primary day and provide the very first set of results in Tuesday's primary in New Hampshire.
Follow along with our live, up-to-the minute coverage here:
Catch up on live coverage from the primary:
- POLL: Democrats' belief Joe Biden can beat Trump took a massive 14-point hit after disastrous Iowa caucus
- Elizabeth Warren compared Mike Pence to a dog when a voter asked who her running mate would be
- Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg are neck-and-neck in New Hampshire polls ahead of the primary
- Joe Biden called a New Hampshire voter 'a lying dog-faced pony soldier' during a campaign event
What's at stake in the New Hampshire primary
While New Hampshire is a small state that holds just 24, or 0.4%, of the total delegates allocated through the process and isn't very representative of the Democratic primary electorate as a whole, it holds disproportionate importance as the first primary.
Of the 24 pledged delegates:
- 8 will be decided by the outcome of the vote in the 1st congressional district
- 8 from the vote in the 2nd district
- 8 from the statewide vote.
As usual, there's a 15% threshold, above which presidential candidates get delegates.
The results of Tuesday's primary will be particularly crucial for Sen. Elizabeth Warren and former Vice President Joe Biden, both of whom are hoping for a strong comeback in New Hampshire after their third and fourth-place finishes, respectively, in Iowa.
The past two winners of the Democratic New Hampshire primary, however, Sanders in 2016 and Hillary Clinton in 2008, didn't go on to eventually win the nomination, meaning that a victory or loss in the Granite State won't necessarily make or break a candidate.
Who does the polling say is ahead?
The most recent primary polls have shown the top five candidates all polling in double-digits in the state, meaning like in the Iowa caucuses, the outcome is likely to be closely decided in New Hampshire too.
FiveThirtyEight's forecast of the election gives Sen. Bernie Sanders a 68% chance of getting the most votes, followed by Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who has a 28% chance of getting the most votes.
In Real Clear Politics' average of New Hampshire polls, Sanders leads the field with 28.7% support on average compared to 21.3% for Buttigieg, 11.7% for Sen. Amy Klobuchar, 11% for Warren and Biden each, 3.7% for Andrew Yang, 3.3% for Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, and 3% for Tom Steyer.
In New Hampshire polling, Buttigieg received a significant seven percentage point surge from 14% to 21% after his first-place finish in the Iowa caucuses. And following her breakout performance in the February 7 debate, Klobuchar saw a mini-surge from 8% to 11.7%, putting her neck-and-neck with Biden and Warren.
Read more:
Here are the winners and losers of Friday's combative Democratic debate in New Hampshire
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